But theres no indication that the two sides of the climate change debate will reach any common ground in the near future on what scientific evidence is showing, or what policy decisions should be adopted. Why the scientists tolerate models that are neither validated or plausible is beyond me. So = 1.361 W/m (So is the Solar constant) JamesS finally succeeded in contacting the NIST Fellow and Chief Statistician. The effects of global warming are visible. Funding and Study of data and history to learn more, understand more, and Funding and Study of other factors, with proper understanding and teaching is badly needed. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001)." According to NASA data, 2016 and 2020 tied for the warmest year since 1880, continuing a long-term trend of rising global temperatures. 2, 2008 the Heartland Institute sought to challenge the idea that human activity was causing climate change by holding its own international conference on climate change. Computer models are sometimes used by scientists, like an abstract drawing on a paper napkin is sometimes used by scientists. Cant melt their way to China 21st century silicon carbide containment materials dont melt at even runaway nuclear temps. Javier thanks the last two explanations seem political, not scientific, I find this extraordinary. According to some scientists, stabilizing the climate would require reducing carbon dioxide emissions 80 percent or even more by the middle of the century. Leaving aside energy from exploiting local topography, there are only two reliable sources of energy, fossil fuels and nuclear. Rubbish. In fact ice ages are vastly less hospitable to human beings than a world that is a little warmer will be. A recent article by BBC News covers research that claims potato crops in the British Isles may be significantly harmed by climate change. Moreover, air temperatures had been declining since about 1940, prompting some to worry that air pollution and human activity could hasten the onset of another ice age. Learn how NASA Earth observations are helping water resource managers more accurately plan conservation efforts. I continue to concentrate on the temperature foundations of all of this material on global warming, because all of it that I have studied in detail is just wrong, wrong, wrong. It is the reason why it has been so controversial for 200 years, and it continues being so. Its simply funny in the rhetorical sense. J0shu@, 1f u have found the @nswer to the filter let us know. Grazing and domestication of major food grains was independently established in diverse locations from some 10,000 BCE. Temperatures are rising dramatically; Global Warming is Causing Cold Spells; El Nio; Urban Heat Islands Do Not Exaggerate Global Warming; Climate Change is Causing Accelerated 21st Century Surface Warming; We are in the Hottest Ever Period Due to Climate Change This article is simple-minded drivel. > The 800 comments distilled into two groups. Geoff S https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2013.08.008, Scafetta N (2021a). October 3, 2022, 10:00 AM GMT. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33196-x/tables/1. Would you go all in on a hand because your new Poker engine tells you so even if it goes against everything you know about the game? Why does everyone accept it as gospel when it displays no natural irregularity? It presents evidence contrary to the hypothesis that global warming is an immediate and serious threat from man-induced greenhouse gas emissions. It is constrained to observation in the early days and the solution space evolves chaotically from initial differences. Nils-Axel Mrner, Emeritus Professor of Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics, Stockholm University, Sweden, Hot Talk, Cold Science is an excellent book on the politics and science of climate change. In the fall of 2008, 17 percent of people did not believe in global warming. So, yes, I want cheap energy. That much should be accepted as truth in line with Isaac Newtons 4th rule of natural philosophy. Its had plenty of time to cool off, if indeed it was ever hotter anyway. If you dont have any idea about this, you really are just throwing the dice and hoping for the best. Some material from contributors may contain additional copyrights of their respective company or organization. They cancel out over large series because they are freakin random. We all are his followers as he has shown how science has been compromised and misused for decades to justify politically and ideologically motivated, disastrous economic policies. dynamical systems, indicating limits about which kinds of questions are theoretically Human emitted greenhouse gases bias a chaotic system to a warmer state. [198], In 2019, CO2 levels were 415.3 ppm, up from 315.7 ppm when measurements began in 1958. It is not about the environment. (2014)3, "The Earths climate is changing in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and particulate matter in the atmosphere, largely as the result of human activities." John R. Christy, Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science; Interim Dean, College of Science; Director, Earth System Science Center, Johnson Research Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville; Alabama State Climatologist, When debating environmental policy, we frequently hear from scientists, climate activists, and public officials who claim the science is settled with regard to global warming. Based on the aforementioned findings, it was determined that the surface-based temperature records may be at least 10% off when it comes to actual warming. Earth can hold onto CO2 ,O2 and N Standard frequentist tests of a null hypothesis based on a Gaussian observation are also unaffected by such a monotonic transformation. Its a regression thing. Hot Talk, Cold Science provides the reader with important facts and evidence consistently and conveniently overlooked by climate alarmists, making clear the case on global warming is far from closed. It looks to me that using high ECS error bars, the NULL hypothesis is inside the 95% CI for the satellite, and perhaps other records. And I consider that my knowledge is awfully inadequate. "History of Climate Change Debate." https://images.remss.com/msu/msu_data_monthly.html?type=trend&channel=2. People with open minds will see that the starting point for global warming, namely these temperature records from curated stations around the world, is in poor shape, so poor I would call unfit for purpose. References Isotope measurements have a precision of the order of 1 per thousand, which would suggest a temperature precision of the order of 0.3oC at temperatures of ~300K. See the About>Contact menu under the header. Congressman; Member, House Natural Resources Committee and House Judiciary Committee, Singer, Legates, and Lupos book Hot Talk, Cold Science is excellent. Now with his superb book Hot Talk, Cold Science, it is way past time we listened to his message. Overwhelming scientific evidence suggests the greenhouse gas-induced global climate signal is so small as to be embedded within the background variability of the natural climate system and is not dangerous. Human beings, the wretches, continue to disappoint the savants at the United Nations . Or is that more I would not like to be seen as (only) a CB player. RealClear Energy, The unsurprising political opposition to climate policysubstantial increases in energy costs combined with trivial future climate impactshas led its proponents to make crisis assertions as loud as they are unsupported by the evidence. Paid advice is different. CMIP6 GCMs versus global surface temperatures: ECS discussion, The Penetration Problem. Will California learn to avoid Peak Rolling Blackouts? Stay up to date on the latest science news by signing up for our Essentials newsletter. Much ado about absolutely nothing. The same result is obtain using solar records showing a large secular variability, while the GCMs use solar forcings taken from the solar proxy reconstructions that show the least secular variability (Connolly et al., 2021). No, a planet surface emits IR EM energy at the very instant solar flux hits the matter. Im a little surprised I havent seen this linked here. Free-market perspectives on breaking news, Check Out all of Heartland's Videos on our YouTube page. Big or small negative or positive. (2018, 13 U.S. government departments and agencies)12, It is unequivocal that the increase of CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere over the industrial era is the result of human activities and that human influence is the principal driver of many changes observed across the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere. [196] The student movement started by Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg continued on Sep. 20, 2019 with an estimated four million demonstrators in at least 160 countries calling for action on climate change, an event that is thought to be the largest climate protest in history to that point. At best, one might argue from a few cases that the statistics of the attractor can be predicted in some broad sense, but without real error bounds or a real PDF for the outcomes. Randal Jackson Humans (all inclusive) are noted for not being clever enough to understand the true natures of either randomness or infinity and have a patent inability to fake them. On being shown the works the person said Oh. You are misusing the Law of large numbers in arguing your statement. And the only thing that they find is the 0.1C change that is the accepted effect of the solar cycle.. The media coverage may have played a decisive role in cooling the publics enthusiasm for a global climate treaty. This appears to be a prime example of putting the cart before the horse. For example, Scafetta (2013, 2021b) deduced an ECS between 1.0 and 2.3 C by assuming (solar-astronomically induced) natural climatic oscillations of quasi 20, 60, 115 and 1000 years, which are observed in many climatic data throughout the Holocene but not reproduced by the GCMs. https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2022/09/18/the-role-of-mathematical-modelling/#comment-211704, Joshua | September 29, 2022 at 8:52 pm | For Willard (Me being cynical, but it may be close to the truth.) No matter how often the politics of catastrophe, conformity and compliance are refuted by empirical data, new waves of hysteria emerge to sustain the self-fulfilling desire by acolytes to censure society needlessly and punitively. I am also of the opinion that natural causes do not completely explain the amount of warming observed this late in the Holocene. These two papers are significant because they take different but [10], The US National Academy of Sciences issued a 1977 report titled Energy and Climate that concluded the burning of fossil fuels was increasing atmospheric CO2, and that increased CO2 was associated with a rise in global temperatures. Res Astron Astrophys 21:131. https://doi.org/10.1088/1674-4527/21/6/131, Lewis, N. (2022). https://www.c2es.org/site/assets/uploads/2012/02/climate-change-adaptation-what-federal-agencies-are-doing.pdf. I could reproduce it here but will not out of deference to the people at the other site. "11, "Earths climate is now changing faster than at any point in the history of modern civilization, primarily as a result of human activities." For those with a knowledge of physics, they use the Stefan-Boltzmann Law incorrectly when they add to the solar flux an additional flux nearly twice as great coming from the atmosphere and they then use this total (after deducting that for non-radiative surface cooling) in Stefan-Boltzmann calculations to explain the global mean surface temperature. They echo other famous limitations on scientists expectations, namely the In Hot Talk, Cold Science, Fred Singer looks at the issue of climate change the way a physicist should. [190], A 2018 Pew Research Center poll found that 18% of Republicans in the Baby Boomer generation thought that the earth is warming mostly due to human activity, compared to 36% of millennial Republicans and 75% of all Democrats. Climatology was a pretty small subfield of science in the early 1980s. Then we will be able to enjoy a return to the good old days of the noble savage with all that pain, hunger, disease, and walking instead of using a car. Good to see. 2019, as many as 1.4 million people worldwide participated in a school walk out to bring attention to climate change. Creative Society is a global non-profit movement that functions across 180 countries and over 100 languages. 26 Nxg5 h6xg5 27 Bg5 Rxh3 28Kb2 Nxe5 I am assuming on that basis that ECS is a dynamic emergent property of oceans, atmosphere, cryosphere and biosphere. ProCon.org is the institutional or organization author for all ProCon.org pages. Lewis and Koonin provide reassurance on this subject. Thank you for this short summary of error types. The IPCC has walked back some of its earlier alarmist claims, but it hasnt been the only scientific authority to pass off misinformation. Even when told they dont believe it due to the controversial nature of climate change. The new ones were trained on the importance of anthropogenic forcing, and they trained new ones. Nothing better illustrates the fact that we are dealing with a political cum religious cult rather than science where the quest for power overwhelms scientific inquiry. Eventually, a group of hypotheses might be integrated and generalized into a scientific theory, a scientifically acceptable general principle or body of principles offered to explain phenomena. We are creating a series of online events with the help of thousands of translators, academics, videographers and journalists. They were treated as gross outliers There is no convincing evidence, for example, that Uranus is cooling. Like the Swiss people that Javier wrote of above. Science is done by piecemeal analysis, and very few people have a wide understanding. Not random. In Hot Talk, Cold Science, Singer, Legates and Lupo have provided the intellectual ammunition needed to defeat the well-financed fanatical forces with their frightening false narrative. Commenters (apart from a couple like James Gorman) seemed too timid to offer a definitive answer about how to calculate uncertainty in different scenarios. Goldberg, Stephen Jay; Smith, Colin L.; Connell, Alastair M. Youre certainly entitled to disagree, but I have no intention to wreck anything. A previous tipping point evident in the glacier ablation curves, an Eddy root, was also indicated. What may be seen as random errors may be some bias in the workings. etc. The debate over global warming is the most consequential public policy debate taking place today in the United States and around the world. 24 Nc3 Ng5! https://forestrypedia.com/the-benefits-of-carbon-di-oxide-co2/, As a result, the land has warmed 2.02.3 times faster than the ocean according to surface-based temperature records. (As with hydrogen.). The last two AMO envelopes are longer than average because the previous centennial minimum was 130 years earlier, while the Dalton Minimum was only 80 years before the Gleissberg Minimum. To them the sun has been ruled out. Let us have a show of hands. Average surface temperatures on earth have risen more than 2F over the past 100 years. Angechs immodest game We should follow the science. When I can get cheap natural gas and cheap gasoline and cheap electricity, that leaves more money to save for retirement, spend on things I want or need, or take a nice vacation. Climate Changes due to Internal Factors that do Resonate with External forcing, but the Climate Cycles have never always correlated with any External Forcing, sometimes Resonating with some external force changes and more often not Resonating with the same external force changes. At the margins the situation is now dire. Mob grazing can make even cows both content and environmentally friendly. Now new research shows just how much forests have been bulking up on that excess carbon. Trying to express uncertainty has become too large a problem for me personally. Im sure entropy is not in their repertoire either. See: https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-5cacbc84907b70fd91a663866ee4033a. I was besmirched. The IPCC (2013), USGCRP (2017), and USGCRP (2018) indicate that it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-twentieth century." That CO2 lags and amplifies temperature was actually predicted in 1990 in a paper The ice-core record: climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming by Claude Lorius (co-authored by James Hansen): "Changes in the CO2 and CH4 content have played a significant part in the glacial-interglacial climate changes by amplifying, together with the growth and decay of Chaos is a term that is used to describe a system that is not understood. Mercury..325,83 K..340 K They all want a return to a world with fewer people that live meager, circumscribed lives while the rich carry on their jet-setting ways. Find stories, updates and expert opinion. But he doesnt know what hes talking about either. If you can go deep enough where it is over 300C there are other molecules they can use besides H2O to transfer the heat to the surface. You do. Since this difference was statistically significant (P<0.01 and P<0.05, respectively), the data suggest that emotional stress may play a contributing role in the production of gastric mucosal abnormalities.". The validation tests were conducted using 688 GCM member simulations, 143 average GCM ensemble simulations, and Monte Carlo modeling of internal GCM variability in compliance with three alternative model accuracy requirements. In a survey of 2,130 people, the report found that there is a progressive decrease in the number of people who think there is solid evidence of global warming and an increase in the number who think there is no solid evidence. List of Figures Javier, did you read the paper How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? They cancel out over large series because they are freakin random. Those who tried the guessing games of climate research would be in different jobs by nightfall. Peter V. Bias, William F. Chatlos Professor of Business and Economics, Florida Southern College, I have read many of Fred Singers scientific publications, including his NIPCC reports and essaysalways courageous and unbiased. This is based on over a century of scientific evidence forming the structural backbone of today's civilization. Earth has a lower atmosphere as not enough gases are produced to go higher out. Most climate scientists do not research paleoclimatology, so they dont have a professional opinion on the LIA and its causes. 3. diversify away from fossil fuels before we have to. Im all for nuclear power. It can be recycled with a little more fertile material added. Perhaps thats why virtually none of the truly great climate scientists who really know what they are talking about and document it with hundreds and hundreds of seminal studies and papers over decades call themselves climate scientists! The stakes in this global debate, Dr. Singer reminds us, are monumental. Alas, even scientists are often attracted by power and public recognition. Most importantly, perhaps, is their exploration of scientific modelingnecessary at times, but unreliable for important policy decisions. It is a fascinating and remarkable voyage over all the central aspects. Except that the systemic error is listed, or assumed, as random. A World Weather Attribution study found that climate change increased the likelihood of wildfires such as those in Australia by at least 30% since 1900. US Debate over Climate Change Heats Up. Hardcover 256 pages 36 figures 2 tables 6x9inches. The modelers have had ample opportunity to correct their models. Nonetheless, the scientific questions about global warming are largely inseparable (properly so) from policy discussion. In year 173CE two particular measurements were made (that necessarily within 24hrs of each other). Researchers seem to take a bet on what they think is right, then stick with it and double down when the evidence becomess too embarrassing. open source Garbochess-JS The surface of Venus is far hotter mainly because its atmosphere is far thicker (meaning higher) than ours. . Science Editor: The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. Sounding an Early Alarm on Coral Reef Disease. A fixed length oscillation for the AMO is meaningless, and 60 years is too long for the mean. Children need to be allowed to learn without being used as pawns in an adult political battle. Harsh winters are used as evidence of no global warming while scorching summers are used to support the viewpoint of human-caused warming of the Earth. You will receive a verification email shortly. What Geoff is on about is not error at all but deliberate or unintentional bias in the homogenizartion process accounting for site moves, equipment changes or environmental conditions. . Models are in common use in all branches of science and engineering, such as aircraft design and construction. Read it, and you will be better-informed. Ive accepted some AGW. Real science agrees with the cultural Marxist narrative that human beings are a plague that is destroying the planet and we should follow the example of a pampered Swedish teenager who is very angry and knows more than the combined intelligence of the rest of mankind (sorry, personkind). I cannot imagine that the clearly larger anthropogenic component is not decisive!. Lewis, N. (2022). [159], Kyoto Protocol, Paris Agreement, and Other International Conferences on Climate Change, Over 161 nations met in Kyoto, Japan, in Dec. 1997 to negotiate a treaty to limit greenhouse gas emissions and work toward the objectives of the UNFCCC. . Proper citation depends on your preferred or required style manual. To check the last point, the work adds an extended section where the observed and GCM modelled warming over the land and over the ocean are compared. Javier: Most climate scientists do not research paleoclimatology, so they dont have a professional opinion on the LIA and its causes.. Random errors will probably not add to zero over a very long time. Ultra deep geothermal seems to be in the same category as fusion energy where the physics get extreme but so does the lure of an endless energy supply. New York, Chicago Tribune, In Hot Talk, Cold Science, Singer has made an important scientific contribution to the global warming debatea debate that some have attempted to quash or declare concluded. Joshua was wrong. Built quality assured in a factory delivered on a truck refuel at 8.7 years. The attack is global and has come through scientific organizations, national academies, interest groups, the media, and politicians. Wrongly it was considered that divergence from an assumed polynomial was all error on the part of the investigators. But if the best-available research shows there is little danger or that there is nothing we can do to prevent climate change, then we should oppose legislation adopted in the name of stopping global warming. (Accepted by a Smooth Hemisphere with radius r sunlight is S***r(1-a), where = 0,47) It seems therefore unlikely that climate policy will change any time soon. Poor little diddums. There were hundreds of studies linking gastritis to emotional stress before the discovery of Helicobacter pylori. It demands the use of our reason; in fact, it is useless without it. There was a problem. Then what is global warming? As Singer, Legates and Lupo do, lets keep the debate scientifically sound and enlightening. There is no longer shared reality on an issue like climate, even though the very existence of our civilization is threatened." Pat Frank wrote a paper explaining why the models are unfit for purpose due to propagation of error. Johnathan reported: The evidence is overwhelming that the vast majority of the warming is natural. The careful analysis of data from a variety of sources by Dr. Singer in his book, Hot Talk, Cold Science, is in sharp contrast to the hysterical simplicities of the global warming zealots and politicians. If I had done to my branch of science what researchers have done to global warming science I would have been in jail long ago. Trying to put these facts together simply one could speculate that at the energy the moon gets from the sun that the volatiles like CO2 and O2 are simply lost to space. My statements on the matter at the time are freely available for anyone to look up. The debate over global warming has been going all around the world. Maybe a few cents per million BTU? = 150 days*gr*oC/rotation*cal is a Rotating Planet Surface Solar Irradiation INTERACTING-Emitting Universal Law constant Opting finally for prudent measures that include conservation and efficiency as well as nuclear and alternative energy sources, the author hedges his bets and agrees to a no regrets policy which includes adaptation to climate changejust in case. We are changing the global energy scheme on the foundations of data unfit for purpose. Tim Benson, The Heartland Institute - Ideas that empower people, Mark Steyn vs Michael Mann, Climate Change: The Fact, Scott Denning v. Roy Spencer Debate ICCC6, Research & Commentary: Data Shows Methane Emissions in Colorado Declined Significantly Despite Large Increase in Oil Production, Research & Commentary: New Report Details How to Strengthen America, Weaken Putin, and Make the World Safer Via Increased American Energy Production, Research & Commentary: Congressional Bill Would Block Federal Infrastructure Funds from Heading to States that Have Banned Hydraulic Fracturing, Alarmists Repackage Myth of Overpopulation Induced Catastrophe (Guests: Pierre Desrochers and Joanna Szurmak), POLITICO Awards Putin Top Spot on Their Green 28 List. 4. The standard deviation of the difference gives the confidence limits. The Brookings Institute released a report in April on the public opinion on climate change in the United States and Canada. Moving On Despite knowing the difference between weather and climate, both climate supporters and opponents, usually in politics and media, often can't refrain from using short-term weather patterns to bolster their respective arguments. However, I can say without hesitation cheap energy helps me. Honour my commitments. Bush on Oct. 13, 1992. It suggests a level of warming that has serious consequences. This link has the basics: https://www.facebook.com/melitamegalithic/photos/a.433731873468290/2093466177494843/ The Midwests best library on freedom and limited government with nearly 20,000 books. Objectivelycombining climate sensitivity evidence. These results suggest that the warming reported by the surface-based temperature records, especially over land, is too large and incompatible both with the satellite measurements and the land/ocean ratio prediction of the models. 9 Be3 Qe7 10 Bd3 QC7 11 Bf4 f5! Politicized hurricane and climate science breeds distrust, green energy and economic disasters. But the narrative will take a hit. In science, facts or observations are explained by a hypothesis (a statement of a possible explanation for some natural phenomenon), which can then be tested and retested until it is refuted (or disproved). But it is nonlinearity that is of more interest. A random event [accident misnomer] is an event that did happen and will continue to happen but cannot be predicted. then isnt a significant portion of the post 1850 warming just a reversion back to the mean just a natural rebound?. 2001 due to Senate opposition and concerns that limiting greenhouse gas emissions would harm the US economy. Given Earth history the dominant climate science paradigm is abrupt change. There is a small price for making me pay. Jan1976, Vol. I expect Jim will be screaming for cheap power of any kind if we dont get a wriggle on. All we need to do is read the comments from my dear friends David and Joe to see what I mean. Global warming is what climate change used to be called before a lengthy temperature hiatus undermined its credibility. The obvious candidates were the hockey team, aka those who figured in the ClimateGate affair. To that end end I will not debate you on this here as that is precisely the side tracking that you wish to accomplish here. Further, Singer notes how many proposed solutions to the global warming crisis (like carbon taxes) would have severe consequences for economically disadvantaged groups and nations. Peter Stilb, Emeritus Professor of Chemistry, KTH, Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden, The products of science constitute one of the most strikingly glorious examples of the reasoning mind in action, producing the advanced civilization that many enjoy today. The number is on the page. That would be a decadal rate of 0.2C which is roughly equal to the decadal rate the measured warming over the past 40 or 50 years. Consequently the chance of a large sum of random steps ending at infinity being zero is zero. Then there is the author and his cohort. Moon.270,4 K.223,35 ..220 Never have been, never will be. Or maybe I missed it? The missions fleet of ship, aircraft, and marine robotics will study ocean eddies and other elusive features near the surface that have a big influence on climate. For permission, contact us. His refusal to take accountability for his actions and words as seen both here and the other site is his to deal with. The explanation of a phenomenon called heat creep above where the embryo sun caused the cores of supposedly cold planets to heat up over time is, on the surface of it, totally un physical.

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